Richard Corlett
(National University of Singapore, Singapore)
BIO
Richard Corlett obtained his first degree from the University of Cambridge in 1974, followed by a PhD in plant ecology at the Australian National University, with fieldwork in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. He has subsequently held teaching posts at the University of Chiang Mai (1980-82), National University of Singapore (1982-87), and the University of Hong Kong (1988-2008). He rejoined The National University of Singapore in June 2008 as a Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences. In July 2012 he will be moving to the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in Yunnan, to take charge of a new Center for Integrative Conservation. His major research interests include terrestrial ecology and biodiversity conservation in tropical East Asia, plant-animal interactions, urban ecology, invasive species, and the impacts of climate change. In addition to numerous scientific papers, he is the author or co-author of several books, including The Ecology of Tropical East Asia, published in 2009 by Oxford University Press, and Tropical Rain Forests: an Ecological and Biogeographical Comparison, co-authored with Richard Primack, with a second edition published by Wiley in 2011. He will be one of the authors for the “Asia” chapter in the IPCC’s next climate report due in 2014.
ABSTRACT
Climate change in the tropics: the end of the world as we know it?
Richard T. Corlett
Until recently, many tropical biologists believed that significant climate change was too remote a concern to worry about in comparison with the more urgent threats from deforestation and overexploitation. This attitude has been largely replaced in the last few years by a widespread recognition that climate change is already happening in the tropics at a rate that is relevant to current and planned conservation action, as well as human livelihoods. However, the tropical literature on the biological impacts of anthropogenic climate change does not currently capture the full range of uncertainties inherent in the prediction process. In reality, the range of plausible tropical futures projected from realistic greenhouse gas scenarios and the best available climate models includes potentially catastrophic changes in tropical climates within the next few decades. Conversely, the simplifications inherent in current approaches to modeling impacts may tend to exaggerate the effects of climate change on tropical biodiversity by underestimating the capacities of tropical species for acclimation and rapid evolution, and ignoring the existence of refugia within heterogeneous landscapes. Combining the physical and biological uncertainties, it is clear that there is a potential for large under- or over-estimation of the risks. I will outline possible futures, consider the prospects for reducing the uncertainties, and discuss specifically tropical options for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
(National University of Singapore, Singapore)
BIO
Richard Corlett obtained his first degree from the University of Cambridge in 1974, followed by a PhD in plant ecology at the Australian National University, with fieldwork in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. He has subsequently held teaching posts at the University of Chiang Mai (1980-82), National University of Singapore (1982-87), and the University of Hong Kong (1988-2008). He rejoined The National University of Singapore in June 2008 as a Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences. In July 2012 he will be moving to the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in Yunnan, to take charge of a new Center for Integrative Conservation. His major research interests include terrestrial ecology and biodiversity conservation in tropical East Asia, plant-animal interactions, urban ecology, invasive species, and the impacts of climate change. In addition to numerous scientific papers, he is the author or co-author of several books, including The Ecology of Tropical East Asia, published in 2009 by Oxford University Press, and Tropical Rain Forests: an Ecological and Biogeographical Comparison, co-authored with Richard Primack, with a second edition published by Wiley in 2011. He will be one of the authors for the “Asia” chapter in the IPCC’s next climate report due in 2014.
ABSTRACT
Climate change in the tropics: the end of the world as we know it?
Richard T. Corlett
Until recently, many tropical biologists believed that significant climate change was too remote a concern to worry about in comparison with the more urgent threats from deforestation and overexploitation. This attitude has been largely replaced in the last few years by a widespread recognition that climate change is already happening in the tropics at a rate that is relevant to current and planned conservation action, as well as human livelihoods. However, the tropical literature on the biological impacts of anthropogenic climate change does not currently capture the full range of uncertainties inherent in the prediction process. In reality, the range of plausible tropical futures projected from realistic greenhouse gas scenarios and the best available climate models includes potentially catastrophic changes in tropical climates within the next few decades. Conversely, the simplifications inherent in current approaches to modeling impacts may tend to exaggerate the effects of climate change on tropical biodiversity by underestimating the capacities of tropical species for acclimation and rapid evolution, and ignoring the existence of refugia within heterogeneous landscapes. Combining the physical and biological uncertainties, it is clear that there is a potential for large under- or over-estimation of the risks. I will outline possible futures, consider the prospects for reducing the uncertainties, and discuss specifically tropical options for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
